With the continued growth of world populations, the
issue of sustaining food quantities to feed the world is of increasing concern.
Issues concerning food have been espoused before, and the themes argued by
Brown implicitly evokes a Malthusian way of thinking. The demand for food will
grow faster than we are able to supply it, and the yield loss of crops will
continue to be exacerbated by environmental issues such as shortages of fresh
water, eroding top soils, and climate change.
We
project the future relying on past trends. The trends culminated from global
agriculture, population, environmental and economic factors—Brown
argues—coupled with “the political tensions they generate point to the
breakdown of governments and societies.” The growing severity of environmental
degradation that will lead to food shortages—factors such as falling water
tables, eroding soils, and rising temperatures—has led Brown to believe that
catastrophic collapse of global civilization is possible. States fail when
governments are unable to provide the basic freedoms and necessities that we
have known to become the norm in developed countries: access to food, security,
education, and healthcare—all things we take for granted today.
Part of this trend
includes the increase of world populations, demand for livestock products which
contributes to grain yield, and “massive diversion of U.S. grain to ethanol
fuel distilleries.” As developing countries become more affluent, an extra
demand for grain follows. In first world countries such as the U.S. and Canada,
the consumption of grain is consumed “indirectly as meat, milk, and eggs from
grain-fed animals”, nearly 90%. A large portion of grain is also diverted for
use of fuel in automobiles which is a portion that can feed half a billion
people in India alone.
The shortage of water
poses the most significant threat to the collapse of the food supply. The
challenge is irrigation and, at the moment, we are pumping water out of
aquifers faster than rainwater can recharge them. The result is falling water
tables, and the subsequent procedure to gather water for irrigation requires
drawing water from deeper aquifers which are not replenishable. With the lack
in yield of grain from falling water tables, more nation states will have to
import their grain elsewhere in order to support the growing population. With
the diminishing returns due to shortage of water and loss of topsoil, the
inaccessibility of food is sure to arise which will lead to increasing social
conflict.
Crops
currently grow at the near or thermal optimum. As climate change has an
increasingly profound effect in rises in temperature, it will correspondingly
diminish and shrink the harvest of grains and crops. Past technologies that
significantly have increased the yield of crops have already reached their
limits with no further increases in the production of grain. The political
landscapes begin to shift when there are growing concerns in the ability to feed
its citizens. Countries acting in their own self-interests are exacerbating the
plight of the poorest demographic which leads to a cycle of lawlessness.
What
Brown argues for is Plan B, what he calls “our only option.” Because the
circumstances of world food shortage is trend-driven, the environmental trends
that lead to the exacerbation of the predicament must be reversed. It requires
strict measures and a sharp decline from the way things are handled now. It
consists of four components:
-
Cut carbon emission by 80% from 2006
levels by 2020
-
The stabilization of the world population
of 8 billion by 2040
-
Eradication of poverty
-
Continued restoration of forests, soils,
and aquifers
Measures such as banning global deforestation, issuing
a carbon tax, a shift to smaller family sizes, basic education, a focus on
family planning, are prudent measures if we are too live in a sustainable
world. Restoring natural earth systems and resources is a global effort, one
that would take a united front from all nations around the world. Time is the
scarcest resource. Brown’s Plan B not only calls for a drastic overall to our
current aspects of living, but for the implementation of these practices in
order to achieve these goals quickly. It will take a new way of thinking, of
challenging the preconceptions of what we find important today.
According to Lester Brown, demand for food is growing
faster than the supply. What are the effect of this trend likely to be? How can
we prevent the worst effect?
The increasing growth of human population will
accelerate the demand for food as world nations desperately try to feed its
citizens. If there is exponential growth around the world, communities around
the world will have to find new innovative ways to increase the yield of crops
in order to provide food security for its population. In a perfect world, food insecurity
is non-existent; however, the world is far from perfect, and places where
poverty and hunger run rampant, crimes rates skyrocket upwards and governments
corrupt. These nation states will serve as a microcosm for the whole global community
if we do not finds ways to prevent this from happening. The best thing to do to
ensure a better way of living is through education, family planning, and less
harmful means of agriculture and a smarter way to manage resources.
Works Cited
Brown, Lester R. “Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilizations?” Sources: Selections in Environmental Studies. Ed. Thomas Easton. United States, 2014. 139-144.